Results for two tests were excluded from the regression
analysis. Owing to their perfect diagnostic performance (the
AURCs were 1) we could not calculate the SE of the AURC.
According to the standard regression models, several clinical features
and methodological aspects caused differences in diagnostic performance (Table 2). However, after correcting for
the dependence between AURCs within the same study and the
heterogeneity in the precision of the AURCs caused by different study
sizes, only two aspects remained statistically significantly different.
First, a major clinical feature of the study population that led to
heterogeneity was the way in which the study population had been
selected (Table 3). Second, because the
investigated H. pylori serology kits were based on
various antibody preparations, the diagnostic performances differed substantially. In the final weighted-random-effects regression model in which the features "consecutive yes/no" and "type of antibodies measured" were included, the estimated AURC for a
nonconsecutive patient series was 0.053 (P = 0.01)
higher than that for a consecutive patient series. The estimated AURC
for kits that measured "IgA antibodies only" was 0.063 (P = 0.01) lower than that for kits that measured
"IgG antibodies only," while for kits that measured "IgA, IgG,
and IgM simultaneously" it was 0.22 lower (P = <0.001). The P values for the overall F test in
the multivariate weighted-random-effect regression analysis for the
categories consecutive patients and antibodies were <0.001 and 0.013, respectively. The AURC for the serology kits that measured "IgA, IgG,
and IgM antibodies" was 0.16 (P = 0.001) higher than
that for the kits that measured "IgA antibodies alone." After
correcting for the way that the study population had been selected, an
evaluation of only the serology kits that measured IgG antibodies with
more than five test kits revealed that the diagnostic performance
of the Helico-G serology kit was significantly lower (P = <0.001) than that of the Anti-Hp serology kit (Table
4). The overall F-test
value for the serology kits with NDF equal to 8 and DDF equal to 47 was
4.07 (P = 0.001), and the overall F-test
value for the consecutive category with NDF equal to 1 and DDF equal to
47 was 2.21 (P = 0.14).
Before implementing new diagnostic tests in clinical practice,
careful evaluations must be done. Three topics are of importance (83). First, the test must have been evaluated with the
indicated study population, i.e., the population of patients suspected
of having the disease in question. The relevant population in this case
consisted of a consecutive series of patients with dyspeptic complaints
referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. However, most studies
analyzed a highly selected sample of patients with dyspepsia
referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. For a highly
selected sample, H. pylori serology has excellent
diagnostic performance. If a population of consecutive patients is
tested, the diagnostic performance decreases.
The second topic of importance is determination of the
diagnostic performance. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity and
specificity are the most commonly used measures of test performance.
Sensitivity and specificity are important parameters for diagnostic
purposes but not for evaluative purposes. First, the use of different
cutoff points for test positivity leads to various sensitivities and specificities. Second, the distribution of the test results for H. pylori-positive and -negative patients can vary
considerably among studies because of selection. To overcome these
problems, the presentation of the entire range of sensitivities and
specificities at various cutoff points by a ROC curve results in better
comparability of diagnostic tests. However, ROC curves and/or test
result distributions were very sparsely presented in the publications.
Fortunately, it is possible to make a fairly accurate estimation of the
underlying ROC curve if one sensitivity and one specificity are
mentioned (42). We think that this method is more
appropriate for evaluation of the diagnostic performance of tests than
the summary ROC technique used by Loy et al. (48).
First, by analyzing the AURCs, the different cutoff points used
for the same kit with different study populations were of no
importance. Second, to compare pairs of serology kits, Loy et al.
(48) needed more studies that had used two kits. By our
method we could compare kits without any restrictions. A
statistical test could be used to evaluate whether one was better than
another. If the hypothesis of "no kit effect" is rejected, a
multiple-comparison method can be used to compare pairs of tests. By
introducing a random effect for study population as an alternative for
the paired t test used by Loy et al. (48), we
allowed for dependence between kits in the same study. Third, the
weighted-regression method took the various study population sizes into account and corrected for them. Small studies
with low AURCs will have smaller weights than large studies with high AURCs. The summary ROC analysis used equal weights for the studies involved, while it ignored the different study sizes and AURCs. Fourth,
it seems to us that our method is likely to be more efficient for the
testing of kits and other covariables because it incorporated studies
and all kits in one analysis.
One problem remains: we do not know whether the random-effect model
assumptions are correct. It is not clear whether the correlation between two kits and the correlation between two other kits within the
same study population are equal. Maybe different correlations between
different pairs of kits are better descriptions of reality. Unfortunately, most kits were used in only a few studies, and the
number of kits used within one study was too small to thoroughly test
the model assumptions. We used the MIXED procedure from the SAS
software for the analysis. This procedure did not converge when all
clinical features were included in the models because of too few
observations. An automatic subsets analysis is not part of this SAS
procedure. Therefore, we had to perform a univariate analysis. We could
only perform a multivariate weighted-regression analysis with
correction for random effects, in which the statistically significant
clinical features from the univariate analysis were simultaneously
evaluated in order to correct for possible confounding. A necessary
condition for confounding is that the confounding variable is related
to the feature under study and to the outcome (AURC). If a clinical
feature or methodological aspect is not significant in a univariate
model, then it is very unlikely to be significant in a model in which
more features are included. However, the differences found by our
method were confirmed in the analysis of kits and studies that
fulfilled the requirements of Loy et al. (48). In agreement
with Loy et al. (48), the Anti-Hp serology kit performed
better than the Helico-G serology kit. Furthermore, the Malakit
serology kit also displayed a higher although not statistically
significant AURC than the Helico-G serology kit.
Finally, the relation between a new test and current diagnostic tests
needs to be established. Many methods for the diagnosis of
H. pylori infection are available. Because there is
no consensus about a reference standard, several methods
were used to identify H. pylori infection. The
definition of the reference standard used in the publications ranged
from only one diagnostic method (histology, culture, or rapid urease
testing) having to be positive to more methods having to be positive
(culture, rapid urease testing, and the urea breath test). The
selection of a test as a reference reflects the personal
preference of the investigator, which might lead to bias.
Furthermore, the sensitivity and specificity of biopsy
specimen-based methods vary and are frequently about 90%. Therefore, it is inappropriate to use other imperfect diagnostic tests as reference methods to measure diagnostic performance. However,
the diagnostic performance of H. pylori serology was not influenced by any of the 15 different reference standards used.
The regression equation used to model the heterogeneity between
the studies by means of an ordinary least-squares regression analyses
was as follows:
dummy variable indicating the category of
the clinical feature.
.
It is very likely that the AURCs for different serology kits are
correlated when they are used within the same study population. By
introducing a random effect for study population we could model dependency between kits within the same study population
(24). The regression equation for the random effects model
was as follows:
.
population.
In order to correct for the heterogeneity in the precision of the AURCs
caused by different study sizes, we also performed a
weighted-regression analysis with weights proportional to
1/SE2. The SE was computed according to the expression
given by Hanley and McNeil (36):
noninfected). The expression for
)/(1 + AURC). This formula was derived under the assumption that
to produce
"ties". Although in our case we used dichotomous tests,
we believed
that the formula for SE would nevertheless be useful.
We thank J. L. Severens and E. H. van de Lisdonk
for comments that improved an earlier version of this paper.
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