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Journal of Clinical Microbiology, March 2007, p. 948-952, Vol. 45, No. 3
0095-1137/07/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/JCM.01913-06
Copyright © 2007, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Department of Epidemiology, Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, 171 82 Solna, Sweden,1 Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden,2 Stockholm Group for Epidemic Modeling, Stockholm, Sweden,3 Department of Mathematical Statistics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden,4 Regional Center of Communicable Disease Control in Skåne, Malmö, Sweden,5 Department of Clinical Microbiology, Lund University Hospital, Lund, Sweden,6 Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts,7 European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden8
Received 14 September 2006/ Returned for modification 30 October 2006/ Accepted 22 December 2006
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0.5 µg/ml) stratified by both pneumococcal serogroup and age of the carrier were compared. The means and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by fitting a gamma distribution to the observed duration of carriage for each age and serogroup stratum. The mean observed duration of carriage for all cases was 37 days (95% CI, 35 to 38 days). Children below the age of 5 years carried PNSP for significantly longer periods (43 days; 95% CI, 41 to 45 days) compared with older individuals (25 days; 95% CI, 24 to 27 days). There were also differences within the group of cases below the age of 5 years, as the duration of carriage became significantly shorter for each increasing age step: <1, 1 to 2, and 3 to 4 years. In addition, patients <5 years of age carried serogroups 9 and 14 for significantly shorter periods than groups 6 and 23. Serogroup 9 was also carried for significantly shorter periods than group 19. For patients aged 5 years or older, no significant difference in carriage duration for different ages or serogroups could be noted. As young children have the longest duration of PNSP carriage, interventions aiming to reduce the prevalence in this group are of great importance. The results highlight the importance of taking both serogroup and age of the carriers into account when studying the dynamics of pneumococcal transmission in young children. |
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Large variations in the duration of nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage have been observed. Age has been reported to be an important determinant, with the longest duration of carriage seen in the youngest individuals (7, 19, 25). Previous studies have also shown that serogroups 6, 19, and 23 are carried for longer periods than other serogroups (11, 25). However, as these serogroups are more common among the youngest children, age-related bias cannot be excluded (7). To our knowledge, durations of carriage adjusted for both the age of the carrier and the pneumococcal serogroup in order to avoid this bias have not been described previously.
In the Skåne Region of Sweden, all identified cases of pneumococci with an MIC to penicillin G (PcG) of
0.5 µg/ml (designated penicillin-nonsusceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae [PNSP]) are monitored with repeated nasopharyngeal (NP) cultures as a part of an ongoing communicable disease control project (8, 18). Detailed data on a large number of cases since the project started in 1995 offer a unique opportunity to study various aspects of the spread and carriage of PNSP. In this study, we used data from more than 2,000 PNSP cases identified in the region between 1995 and 2003 to evaluate whether there are significant differences in the duration of PNSP carriage when stratified by both pneumococcal serogroup and age of the carrier.
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An intervention program with the aim to reduce the spread of pneumococci with reduced susceptibility to penicillin in day care centers (the South Swedish Pneumococcal Intervention Program) has been running in the area since 1995. Whenever an individual carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae with an MIC to PcG of
0.5 µg/ml (henceforth designated PNSP) is identified when seeking medical care due to symptoms of infection (index case), all close contacts of the individual are screened by NP culture in order to identify additional, often asymptomatic cases (contact cases). Repeated weekly to biweekly NP cultures are obtained from all PNSP patients until they have submitted two consecutive PNSP-negative samples. Preschool children are restricted from attending day care centers until they are PNSP negative. The follow-up is performed by trained nurses at local health centers and coordinated by the Regional Centre for Communicable Disease Control of Skåne. A central database with epidemiological and microbiological information on all PNSP cases identified in the region since the intervention started is housed at the Regional Centre.
Microbiological methods. Nasopharyngeal carriage was determined by cultures of nasopharyngeal swab samples. All nasopharyngeal specimens were analyzed at the departments of clinical microbiology in Lund, Malmö, Helsingborg, and Kristianstad, all situated in the Skåne Region, Sweden. The specimens were inoculated onto blood agar plates supplemented with gentamicin (5 mg/liter) within 24 h of collection, and the isolates were identified as being Streptococcus pneumoniae on the basis of colony morphology and susceptibility to optochin.
Antibiotic susceptibility was determined using the disk diffusion method according to guidelines of the Swedish Reference Group for Antibiotics (27). Strains were inoculated onto Iso Sensitest agar (Oxoid Ltd., United Kingdom) supplemented according to the recommendations, and a 1-µg oxacillin disk (Oxoid Ltd.) was applied. Inhibition zone diameters were read to the nearest millimeter and interpreted according to Swedish Reference Group for Antibiotics guidelines. For pneumococci with a zone of <18 mm with a 1-µg oxacillin disk, the MIC of benzylpenicillin was determined using the Etest (AB Biodisk, Solna, Sweden) (23). Serotyping to the group level was performed by the quellung reaction using antisera from the Statens Seruminstitut, Copenhagen, Denmark (15).
Study participants. We obtained data on age, serogroup, duration of carriage, and reason for culture (index/contact case status) on all PNSP cases identified in the Skåne Region between March 1995 and December 2003 from the database at the Regional Centre for Communicable Disease Control in Skåne. All cases were subject to the South Swedish Pneumococcal Intervention Program and followed up with weekly to biweekly NP cultures. The duration of carriage was defined as the period from the day of the first PNSP-positive culture to the day of the first of the two consecutive PNSP-negative cultures. The age of the patient was recorded at the first PNSP-positive culture.
In total, 2,621 PNSP-positive cases (1,065 index cases and 1,556 contact cases) were identified in the region during the study period. Of these, 441 cases were excluded, as no information on either serogroup or duration of carriage was available. Furthermore, six cases were excluded because they carried more than one serogroup at the same time. The final data set used for this study consisted of 2,174 cases (791 index cases and 1,383 contact cases). There was no significant difference in age distribution between the 2,174 cases included in the final study database and the 447 cases that were excluded.
Cases were stratified according to pneumococcal serogroup (serogroups 6, 9, 14, 15, 19, and 23) and age of patient. Stratification for age was done in two steps. A detailed analysis with narrow age strata (<1 year, 1 to 2 years, 3 to 4 years, 5 to 6 years, 7 to 18 years, and >18 years) was supplemented with analysis with a cruder stratification to two groups (0 to 4 years and
5 years), as the narrower age strata sometimes included very few individuals.
Statistics. Previous studies have demonstrated a skewed distribution of the duration of pneumococcal carriage (6, 7). Our data showed the same highly positive skew with a few individuals carrying PNSP for extended lengths of time, indicating that the data might not be normally distributed. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test, which can be applied to continuous distributions, to decide if our samples came from a population with a gamma distribution with the specified parameters. As the P values for the tests were higher than 0.05, we could not reject the null hypothesis that the sample data belonged to a gamma distribution with specific shape and rate parameters. To account for this, we fitted gamma distributions to the durations of carriage for each age-serogroup stratum. The mean of the gamma distribution, corresponding to the mean duration of carriage in days in our model, was estimated by fitting the parameters in the model with a 95% confidence interval (CI) (21).
The estimates do not include any corrections for the left-censored duration of carriage (period of PNSP carriage before a case is identified as a case), nor do they account for the interval censoring arising from the fact that carriage may have ended any time between the last positive swab and the first negative swab.
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TABLE 1. PNSP cases per age group and serogroup
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Children below the age of 5 years carried PNSP for significantly longer periods (43 days; 95% CI, 41 to 45 days) than did older individuals (25 days; 95% CI, 24 to 27 days). In addition, there were age-associated differences within the group of cases <5 years of age. As seen in Table 2, the estimated mean duration for PNSP carriage was the longest for children aged <1 year (mean, 74 days; 95% CI, 61 to 93 days), followed by significantly shorter periods for children 1 to 2 years old (mean, 47 days; 95% CI, 44 to 51 days) and 3 to 4 years old (mean, 34 days; 95% CI, 31 to 37 days). There were no significant differences between the mean carriage durations for children aged between 5 and 6 years and any of the older age groups.
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TABLE 2. Observed duration of nasopharyngeal carriage of PNSP for all cases
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FIG. 1. Observed mean duration of carriage (days) with 95% confidence intervals for all PNSP cases per age group and serogroup for patients younger than 5 years of age.
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When index cases were analyzed separately, a similar pattern of a decrease in carriage duration with increasing age was seen (Table 3). In individual strata, the numbers of observations were sometimes small (Table 1), and hence, the confidence intervals became wider.
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TABLE 3. Observed duration of nasopharyngeal carriage of PNSP for index cases
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Although the objective of the present study was not to report exact carriage durations, our estimates were in accordance with those reported by previous studies. We estimated a crude mean carriage length of 37 days for all cases (ranging between 19 and 143 days depending on age and serogroup). A previous Swedish study based on a limited portion of the same study database (7) had mean estimates that overall were slightly smaller than ours, possibly due to a smaller number of observations. Similar to our estimated crude mean carriage duration of 67 to 74 days for children below 24 months of age, a Finnish study of young children reported a mean estimate of 2.3 months (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.3 months) (2). A United Kingdom-based study could also demonstrate a significant age-related difference between carriage durations for children younger than 5 years of age (mean, 51 days; 95% CI, 42 to 64 days) and older family members (mean, 19 days; 95% CI, 14 to 24 days) (19). However, none of these studies reported serogroup-specific carriage durations for different age groups.
Serogroups 6, 19, and 23 have previously been reported to cause longer durations of carriage than other serogroups (11, 25), although those studies did not take the age of the patients into account. In our study, we could confirm only that serogroups 6 and 23 had a longer duration of carriage than did serogroups 9 and 14 among the youngest children. In patients older than 5 years of age, no significant differences in the duration of carriage could be noted for any studied serogroup. Our findings fit well with previous knowledge of the relatively poor immunocompetence of young children and the poor immunogenicity of many pneumococcal serotypes. Children below the age of 5 years lack the ability to mount a specific antibody response to several pneumococcal serotypes (5), and it has been shown that nasal carriage of serotypes 6, 19, and 23 especially does not elicit a humoral immune response in young children (24, 30).
Our study was based on a large number of cases that were followed up systematically in short intervals (weekly to biweekly). It should, however, be noted that like many other longitudinal studies, our estimates might be affected by two types of censoring. First, our data are left-censored, as the exact time for PNSP acquisition remains unknown. While contact cases might have carried their PNSP asymptomatically for a long period before being identified as a case through screening activities, index cases (the majority seeking medical care for upper respiratory tract symptoms) are probably identified in the beginning of their carriage period, since symptomatic pneumococcal infection often occurs soon after the acquisition of a new strain (11). As the index case estimates are probably closer to the true carriage durations, we have therefore chosen to report data for index cases separately, although the smaller number of observations in each stratum gives more uncertain estimates. The consistency of the index case estimates and the overall estimates supports our conclusions. The interval censoring arising from the fact that carriage might have ended any time between the last positive culture and the first negative culture (our end point) might slightly overestimate carriage duration. Here, no differences between index and contact cases can be expected, and the impact of the interval censoring is kept to a minimum by the short intervals between cultures.
We had no information on individual case characteristics such as antibiotic use, disease symptoms, or immunological status. However, due to the large number of cases included in this study, it is unlikely that these factors have biased our results in a systematic way. In a previous Swedish study, a history of acute otitis media before the age of 1 year or more than six episodes of acute otitis media was a significant risk factor for an extended duration of carriage, possibly due to both immunogenic and nonimmunogenic (anatomic and environmental) factors (7). An additional analysis of a subset of cases within that study showed no relationship between longer durations of carriage and antibiotic consumption during the 3-month period preceding the PNSP carriage or during the carriage period (12).
What accounts for the decline in the duration of pneumococcal carriage in the first 4 years of life? The mechanisms behind the immune response to pneumococci in young children are not well understood. It is clear that exposure to pneumococci induces antibody responses against the capsule (10, 26) and against other, conserved determinants (1, 22). However, animal studies have called into question the mechanistic importance of such antibodies in protection against carriage (16, 28, 29), and human studies have had mixed results regarding the importance of anticapsular (10, 14) antibodies or antibodies against other, more conserved determinants in protection against carriage or disease (17, 20). The differences in the observed carriage durations between serogroups within the same age group show that neither the age effect nor the serogroup effect accounts entirely for the other.
As the pediatric NP flora is considered the main ecological reservoir for pneumococci, the duration of NP carriage plays an important part in the transmission dynamics of the bacteria. With the longest duration of carriage seen among young children, and as pneumococci carried by this group are often associated with antibiotic resistance, interventions aimed at reducing the prevalence in this group are of great importance. However, our results highlight the importance of taking both serogroup and age of the carriers into account when studying the dynamics of pneumococcal transmission in young children.
Published ahead of print on 3 January 2007. ![]()
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