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Journal of Clinical Microbiology
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Bacteriology

Quantitative Microbiologic Models for Preterm Delivery

Andrew B. Onderdonk, Mei-Ling Lee, Ellice Lieberman, Mary L. Delaney, Ruth E. Tuomala
Andrew B. Onderdonk
Channing Laboratory, Departments of Pathology and Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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  • For correspondence: aonderdonk@partners.org
Mei-Ling Lee
Channing Laboratory, Departments of Pathology and Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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Ellice Lieberman
Channing Laboratory, Departments of Pathology and Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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Mary L. Delaney
Channing Laboratory, Departments of Pathology and Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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Ruth E. Tuomala
Channing Laboratory, Departments of Pathology and Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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DOI: 10.1128/JCM.41.3.1073-1079.2003
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ABSTRACT

Preterm delivery (PTD) is the leading cause of infant morbidity and mortality in the United States. An epidemiological association between PTD and various bacteria that are part of the vaginal microflora has been reported. No single bacterial species has been identified as being causally associated with PTD, suggesting a multifactorial etiology. Quantitative microbiologic cultures have been used previously to define normal vaginal microflora in a predictive model. These techniques have been applied to vaginal swab cultures from pregnant women in an effort to develop predictive microbiologic models for PTD. Logistic regression analysis with microbiologic information was performed for various risk groups, and the probability of a PTD was calculated for each subject. Four predictive models were generated by using the quantitative microbiologic data. The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating curves ranged from 0.74 to 0.94, with confidence intervals (CI) ranging from 0.62 to 1. The model for the previous PTD risk group with the highest percentage of PTDs had an AUC of 0.91 (CI, 0.79 to 1). It may be possible to predict PTD by using microbiologic risk factors measured once the gestation period has reached the 20-week time point.

  • Copyright © 2003 American Society for Microbiology
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Quantitative Microbiologic Models for Preterm Delivery
Andrew B. Onderdonk, Mei-Ling Lee, Ellice Lieberman, Mary L. Delaney, Ruth E. Tuomala
Journal of Clinical Microbiology Mar 2003, 41 (3) 1073-1079; DOI: 10.1128/JCM.41.3.1073-1079.2003

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Quantitative Microbiologic Models for Preterm Delivery
Andrew B. Onderdonk, Mei-Ling Lee, Ellice Lieberman, Mary L. Delaney, Ruth E. Tuomala
Journal of Clinical Microbiology Mar 2003, 41 (3) 1073-1079; DOI: 10.1128/JCM.41.3.1073-1079.2003
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KEYWORDS

bacteria
Obstetric Labor, Premature
Vagina

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