TABLE 1

Probabilities, costs, and ranges for cost-effectiveness analysis

VariableBaseline (range)Reference or source
Probability estimates
    Positive HSV PCR0.020 (0.014–0.027)Fig. S1
    Normal CSF WBC and protein levels0.448 (0.324–0.578)Fig. S2
    Positive HSV PCR, given normal CSF WBC and protein levels0 (0–0.01)a510
    Encephalitis, given positive HSV PCR0.189 (0.115–0.295)Fig. S3
    Outcome probabilities of patients18
        HSV encephalitis with acyclovir
            Normal0.14 (0.06–0.25)
            Mild0.23 (0.15–0.32)
            Moderate0.28 (0.22–0.34)
            Severe0.2 (0.16–0.23)
            Death0.15
        HSV encephalitis without acyclovir19
            Normal0.057 (0.048–0.067)
            Mild0.093 (0.084–0.102)
            Moderate0.05 (0.042–0.059)
            Severe0.100 (0.037–0.190)
            Death0.7
        HSV meningitis, with or without acyclovir20
            Normal0.8 (0.69–0.89)
            Mild0.2
            Moderate0
            Severe0
            Death0
        No HSV infection21
            Normal0.155 (0.072–0.264)
            Mild0.255 (0.176–0.340)
            Moderate0.19 (0.135–0.250)
            Severe0.21 (0.171–0.249)
            Death0.19
    Life expectancy with severe sequelae (yr)3.818
    Life expectancy otherwise (yr)3116
Utility estimates
    Utility preference by age22
        50 yr0.854
        60 yr0.829
        70 yr0.811
        80 yr0.755
    Utility preference by neurological status25
        Normal1
        Mild0.82 (0.60–0.97)
        Moderate0.52 (0.33–0.71)
        Severe0.16 (0.02–0.39)
        Death0
Cost (2011 dollars)
    Test, CSF HSV PCR330 (220–450)
    Acyclovir therapy, 30 mg/kg/day intravenously260 (150–400)27, 28
    Hospitalization, viral meningitis8,170 (5,200–11,000)29
    Hospitalization, viral encephalitis54,2101, 2
        Normal33,920 (24,750–44,420)30
        Mild33,920 (24,750–44,420)
        Moderate43,630 (34,360–51,200)
        Severe100,420 (90,900–110,430)
        Death100,420 (90,900–110,430)
    Cost to care for disability, annual30
        Normal2,790 (2,070–3,630)
        Mild2,790 (2,070–3,630)
        Moderate5,650 (4,530–6,870)
        Severe14,330 (7,740–23,220)
    Cost for end-of-life care39,640 (30,500–49,950)31
    Discount rate, utility and cost0.03 (0, 0.07)b
  • a This value was 0.0013 (0.0001 to 0.0039) in probability sensitivity analysis.

  • b One-way sensitivity only.